Here's my very first top 12, so I hope you enjoy. I'm going to speak to the best of my knowledge, and minimize the effect that the threat of political reprecussions might have.
1. Alliance of Kings. Sink. Well I just don't see anything good happening here, as they are already losing the city points they care so much about. It's PID merged into a middle of the line alliance, and the entire server is after them. They're the #4 attackers and #3 defenders leaving them at #4 fighters. Then honestly I'm willing to bet that 3/4 of the Attacker points came from when PID was turtled up and wasn't attacking back. AoK will for now on have a place in the top 12 but they will not stay in 45/55 for more then 3 months, and will be pushed back to their Eastern core.
2. Viking Lords. Swim. Great Leadership and all the right friends. They're well trained, own a nice corner of the map and they work together really well. #2 attackers #4 defenders giving them #3 fighters. In my conversations with them I've seen the patience and wisdom in their leaders to speak for the continued growth that I'm predicting.
3. Revolution of Sin. Swim. My alliance so my opinion is automatically biased. Never the less, Great Leadership and communication between the cast of elite members make RoS quite a force. Only 33 members averaging 220k, we have the right friends, and know how to do what needs to get done. Less then 3 months old and Already #10 attackers #15 defenders making #12 fighters. We're on our way up.
4. Empire. Float. Honestly it's a result of circumstances. Their part in the coalition against PID (now Alliance of Kings) has left them with no nearby enemies. I was on the receiving end of a few of their attacks and through the world war they've learned a lot, but have few options outside of colonization at the moment. They're #5 attackers #8 defenders giving #6 fighters. It will take a bit of a miracle to get them any further then they have already gotten.
5. Underverse. I'm going to leave it at float for now. Coming out of nowhere, and made a killing of the split of AO, I know they have some good players, but I've heard some bad things about the leadership and organization of the alliance. The future will greatly depend on the diplomatic abilities and foresight of the leadership. Brand new alliance, but already #11 attackers #12 defenders at #10 fighters. It will be interesting to see how this one develops.
6. HELLENIC NAVY. Swim? Alright I would say sink, but they've already lasted a lot longer then what I originally expected. They're location in a very quiet neighborhood will give them the ability to grow as long as they don't attack the wrong people. I'm pretty sure they have plenty of Byzantine Empire and Punk in Drublic to CQ for growth. #7 attackers #9 defenders making #8 fighters.
7. BraveHeart. Float. They've been around since very near the begging of the world, and have slowly grown to this #7 spot. I see a couple of lions that originally came from another alliance that was destroyed. They are either staying small until the time is right or they are just struggling to find enough good players. #9 attackers #10 defenders making #9 fighters. I haven't seen anything big from this alliance (which is a strategy all it's own)
8. Legion - The Grand Army. Float. I've never worked with them to know how well they coordinate but I do know that they've made the right friends and are in a great location for growth. Last I checked there was 8 of these Legion alliance, but this one and Bear Clan are really the only one I'd put bets on. #13 attackers and #14 defenders at #15 fighters.
9. White Knights. Sink. The first thing I said when I heard of WK is, "Who?". I'm predicting that this alliance will one day be destroyed by Alliance of Kings. Although AoK will fall some I don't believe they'll be taken out and I think White Knights will be the only available food for them. #8 attackers #6 defenders giving #7 fighters
10. Hegemony. Float. As far as I know, they've run out of enemies near by. They're definitely battle tested through the last few months, but it's going to take something special for them to grow anymore then this. #17 attackers #11 defenders leaving #13 fighters. We'll have to see what happens.
11. Legion - The Bear Clan. Swim. Here's the other Legion alliance that I would put stock in. They've also made the right friends and are in a great location, and managed to survive a tango with PID at it's strongest. I see quick and dramatic growth coming in the near future for these two legion alliances. #14 attackers #13 defenders totaling #14 fighters
12. BraveHeartII. Will suffer or enjoy the same fate as the mother alliance Brave heart.