TOP 12:
Hammered: Sink
Seen too many coalitions form early and collapse in a world. And judging by their struggles to take isolated cities in their own core, I would say they have little hope in terms of fighting. They bleed BP to enemies and have a hard time taking a city from an online player. Also, they kicked some of their more able fighters early on and word is may end up kicking more. I'm assuming they dont know much about their own members as they would not let these people leave if they did. Basically they're an overgrown MRA who joined another MRA. To me, this shows a lack of faith in their fighting ability as these merges, as lame as they are, make more sense closer to WW.
Brew: Sink
The players I know in this group are active, but far from top level talent. They will struggle with any alliances with deep talent, which is very few here, but here nevertheless.
The Ancients: Sink
Some super nice people here, but none that make me worry. Several struggle with alerts and others are just not great fighters. Simple as that.
Virus: Sink
They may be the only "top" alliance that I do not have a contact with, so it's hard for me to judge them. Why sink? Because they are close to us, and I believe my crew can beat them and anyone else here.
Jackals: Sink
Best fighters so far on my list. They're playing heavy defense though it looks like, but I know some people in here that have been in similar situations and thrived. I do believe the pressure will cause them to collapse and/or merge though.
Vendetta: Sink
I saw some of these guys back in Actium. They collapsed quickly while at war with alliances my own team defeated fairly easily. Until they show they can survive against a mediocre alliance, I believe they will sink.
Insanely Clever: Sink...maybe float
Judging by the world map, it looks like they're running for safer waters. That screams sink, but if they're determined enough, I guess they can technically survive a few oceans away from any real action. But hey, I could have this all wrong.
Cold Steel Vengeance: Sink
The players I have experience against in here are not players I would want to be in an alliance with. They'll need all the luck they can get.
Retirement Plan: Float
My first true floating alliance lol. I like their approach to this world, and the players I know in there are solid players. However, those same players, if our fronts meet, are not able enough to hold up against us. But due to them being superior to the alliances around them, IMO, and the space between us, I would say they float.
MACO: Sink
I'd rather not waste my time explaining why.
Banshees: Sink
It seems like they've been collapsing since I joined this world.
BoB: Swim
I've fought these guys and fought alongside them, and each player is a game changer. Anyone currently in this alliance could be ranked #1 or dead last within the alliance any given world. They've given good players from good alliances a lot of trouble and ended some others. I've learned not to doubt this group regardless of who they are up against as they have beaten alliances/players in multiple past worlds that many thought were at the top talent wise.