I'm a player from English servers so I really don't know anyone here, but I can already say which alliances will sink and swim. I have been watching Grepointel and stats for a while now and I know where are some good players.
1. Inked Up
Their position is great for expanding fast, I'm sure that they will only focus on O55 at first. They know that Trailer Park Trash is a bigger threat for them and I'm sure that they will be in contact, either via diplomacy or on the battlefield. I'm not sure what is their policy but if TPT won't touch them, I'm sure they won't do so either.
Swim
2&3. Guardians of Freedom
Sorry but all I can see is a MRA, look how spread they are! No matter how much members they have or how good they are, these guys will be targets by all the alliances of O55, that's for sure. Whoever their founder is, please do some radical changes before it's too late. They have week or two time to live, and three days time to make changes. Trust me, this is not my first server.
Sink
[SPR]
[/SPR]
4. Trailer Park Trash
I have gotten a thought that these guys would be good and are much like Inked Up. I don't know if that's true but I really would like to see these guys fighting their way towards O55 than a boring nap with Inked Up. They don't have decent enemies in O45 but I know that is going to change over time.
Swim
The rest alliances are still unknown for me so I'm not going to tell too much about them, there are some decent alliances in O55 + Unsullied, Vendetta and Boondock Saints looks well organized in O44 they will be fighting each other sooner or later. I believe that one of them will disband soon and all the players will join any of those remaining alliances in O44.
Irish Pub should start growing towards South/South-East of O55 or they will be facing some troubles. Stealthy Pandas might get squeezed unless they have good players. We will see that over time.
Don't get mad if I gave your alliance a bad review. I don't know any players from this server so I might be wrong. But this is just how I see this situation right now. Please +rep if you think I am right, even a little.