I'm going to try one, but I am new to this so I might not be so great
1) Radioactive: Swim, pretty obvious and they don't seem to have any true rivals since Nuke is their sister alliance and they are friends (for now) with Anastasis.
2) Anastasis: Swim, also obvious, no real enemies and Radioactive shows no hints of fighting them.
3) Burn in Hell: Sinking like a rock, got into a war with Radioactive AND Anastasis, and inevitably is losing badly. Don't know official numbers on conquests but it is fairly obvious which side is losing.
4) Nuke: Swim, they are very safe as sister alliance to Radioactive and can keep growing as long as they want to.
5) Hell Hounds: Float, they seem decent enough and don't have any huge enemies from what I can tell, however they also don't seem to moving too quickly.
6) Faceless Elite: Swim, faceless seems very scary as they are so high up the rankings with so few players. In a war they will obviously be very organized (or at least should be) and barring Anastasis or Radioactive, no one should be able to take them out alone.
7) The Summit: Sink, aren't they dead yet?
Eight) Sanctuary: Float, for now, they have a fairly low point average and rank 12th on alliance attackers, and much lower on defenders and fighters. Assuming they aren't eaten by a larger alliance, they should be fine, but probably won't put up a fight against the bigger alliances.
9) The Rat Patrol: Honestly cannot tell, I thought they would've sunk by now but they are still here, more or less, so I'll grant them a float.
10) Dark Waters: Sink, they don't seem to move to fast, and also have not participated in any major wars, however they might just float since no one else seems to want to fight them and they are pretty far from the core of the world.
11) Dark Moon: Float for now, then sink, no one else seems to want to take them down, but at the same time they really don't have any powerful players, I expect them to float along until a larger alliances takes a liking to some of their cities.
12) Aspida: Float, because of Anastasis, this alliance has had multiple leadership changes and I know that their forums are a mess. They won't sink simply because Anastasis won't let them, but on their own they would be a sink for sure.
Thanks for reading and hope it entertained someone for at least a couple minutes
Would love to have a discussion if anyone knows more than I did about some of the alliances I was unsure about!~