Bringing Back Upsilon: Updated Top 12 Sink or Swim

Oliver Clothesoff

Hekatonarch
Ok, a ton of things have changed since the last Sink/Float/Swim thread was made BEFORE THANKSGIVING, so I figured it would be a good idea to make one of these. I will try to be unbiased, and quite brash in order to stir up some debate. Would like to get as many alliances involved in here as possible. Here it goes:

1. The Hive
My alliance so I wont say anything other than that we are #1 in ABP and DBP

2. Uprising
Swim
Outside of The Hive, these guys have the highest per player average of any of the other Top 12 alliances. They are a rim based alliance, so they have a stronghold on their core and cover a large area of the map. However, they are sandwiched between 2 other top 5 alliances to their internal decisions on expansion will greatly effect their future. Their Top 5 status in ABP and DBP also show strong participation from the top down.

3. Assassins Rite
Float then Sink
My first bold prediction for a top 3 alliance. While I think they will float for a while, their situation will be their downfall. They seem to be even further out on the rim than Uprising, and will either have to take them on directly or attempt to expand into the core which is never an easy task. They arent under much attack as shown in their awful #18 DBP rating, but are #4 in ABP which shows they are still growing. Only time will tell how they handle the pressure of being under constant attack. As with most rim alliances, it is hard to get a true grasp on them as they are typically left to themselves for the first portion of the world.

4. Immortal
Float
As one of the smaller alliances member wise in the top 12, Immortals still has a strong per player average. They are also #2 in in ABP and #5 in DBP. They seem to be a pretty active bunch, and have strong positioning compared to some of the other top 5 alliances. Their pacts will likely determine their expansion policy, but they should choose their enemies wisely.

5. Havoc - Ocean 25
Sink
This portion of Havoc found themselves in the top 5 after a recent merger. Surprisingly enough, they cover much more than what their name would lead everyone to believe. That is why I think they will sink. As with most alliances that have a network as large as the Havoc Network, over time sections are closed and consolidated. While Havoc's numbers are strong, it is impossible to keep them up. I see this section of Havoc being absorbed into others as eventually they cut down to 3 or even 4 groups. The #9 ABP and #23 DBP also calls question to some of the members they acquired through this merger.

6. Trinity
Float
With my obvious bias, this prediction is optimistic to say the least. Trinity is another alliance that seemed to rise from the ashes of other alliances. Their expansion policy into the core is brave to say the least, and their being outside the top 10 in ABP and DBP calls one to question if they arent more simmers than anything. The time will come where they will be forced to take some type of action as they occupy a key portion of the world.

7. The Elder Gods
Float then Sink
This alliance contains some pretty decent players in my eyes, it is just they are just lost among everyone else. This alliance has been battered from both sides for a while and it is reflected in their #2 DBP ranking. They can hold their own for a while, but they have no place to expand. As their enemies begin to grow around them, their strong players will be forced to either merge or go down with the sinking ship.

8. Havoc
Swim
This is where my other prediction makes more sense. The original section of the alliance right now is stretched out beyond their means. They can survive because they are on the opposite side of the world compared to other rim alliances. Unless they break down internally, they will continue to exist until they are pressured. Once they consolidate their members into something more manageable, they can become a force to be reckoned with.

9. Arriverderci
Float
This alliance reminds me of a smaller scale version of Immortals, which makes sense since they are located right next door to them. Arriverderci has done a solid job of picking the most beneficial pacts given their location, but it gives them a very difficult road for expansion. Their core in O46 is quite a dead ocean, and their travel time for expansion and defense will pose some difficulties. They rely solely on the success of their friends and at the moment are no more than a thorn in the rear end of their enemies. This is reflected in their #9 ABP ranking, but their #16 DBP rank shows their enemies don't consider them a priority.

10. -The Elder Gods-
Sink
This is the most ill-conceived academy pairing I have seen in a while. And that is being kind. -EG- is too far from their parent alliance to provide and benefit, and in my opinion are merely a distraction for their enemies. This alliance is WAY out on the rim and has nowhere to expand but SW. While this may seem as a decent strategy to EG to sandwich their enemy, Havoc's numbers are simply to great for this alliance to really do anything.

11. Ignem Viatores
Sink
As with EG, IV contains some decent members, but they are a hard headed bunch. What started off as a promising alliance turned into a situation where their aggressive members are separated from to bunch. Their members to the south are focused on turtleing up for their own survival, but this strategy does not promote expansion. Due to their pacts they only have 1 way to expand and have been hitting their heads against the for a while. While the alliance will sink, some of their members will likely see the light and move in another direction leading to IV eventually being dissolved.

12. Imperial Cult
Float
Someone has to fill the last slot, and it is usually by an alliance like IC. They have receded recently, but a portion of those left remain in hostile territory. I'm not quite sure who they are pacted with, but They are #17 in ABP and #10 in DBP. This shows they are being pressured some, but it may just be their members closer to the core. Eventually some of these players will either be eaten, or join a stronger force, leaving those out on the rim wondering where everything went wrong.
 
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Chief B

Guest
and what is your take today? Some things have changed in the last 24 hrs.
 

Oliver Clothesoff

Hekatonarch
Lol I wrote this today!

Too slow apparently.. but the top 12 havent changed.. just reordered... everything still applies.

Similarly, IV can call themselves w/e they want, they are still sinking like a bag of rocks.
 

Digtal.Native

Guest
nice top 12, but i think i have a different opinion of where the rim is... i always thought it was the furthest away populated oceans.

anyways i agree with you on most of these predictions
 

Oliver Clothesoff

Hekatonarch
nice top 12, but i think i have a different opinion of where the rim is... i always thought it was the furthest away populated oceans.

anyways i agree with you on most of these predictions
It is true.. i may have been a little strict in calling someone a rim alliance, but really in my eyes with this world anything out of the 44/54/45/55 in this world where there is so much empty ocean can be considered a rim.. now anything with a 2 or 7 is just WAYYYYY out there right now haha. Obviously as the game gets going it wont seems as far as it does now.
 

Oliver Clothesoff

Hekatonarch
seriously... 114 views and 4 replies. Upsilon you make me sick. I should make a revised top 12 and claim that everyone not #1 in points, average, ABP and DBP will sink.
 

clb15522

Philosopher
Thanks for taking the time to write this up. It is interesting to see. Though of course I see a few things differently. The most important mistake I see you made in regards to TEG is that TEG of 33 are very much supported by the Elder Gods of 43 and 44, we are intermingled very well and we are all close enough to send out support anywhere. Also, if you look at the map TEG of 33 are in a position that Havoc wants very bad, so stopping Havoc from taking 33 is vital.

TEG will stand fast and Hold the Line against Havoc.

Map from my view
http://grepointel.com/map.php?server=us21&ref=0omryuu7st60meerryz6zzidv0rxk6jtzf9tqht
 

Oliver Clothesoff

Hekatonarch
clb I would really like to hear what you have to say now...

clb I also got your message in game, but you have me blocked.. so I cant respond o.o
 
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Oliver Clothesoff

Hekatonarch
Yes it is, but I still think they have a strong group. It seems that there was a split, but it looks like their top players could have just booted everyone that wasnt keeping up their end of being in an alliance. The reason I think this is because even though they only have 24 members, they are still top 5 in ABP and DBP. Those are the rankings that actually matter. To me it looks like they just dropped a bunch of dead weight. The new alliance in the top 10, The Oracle, doesnt concern me much since they are outside of the top 15 in ABP and DBP. Their player average is better than some of the other top 10 alliances, but to really make an impact they need to pick up a couple of really good players and get those BP numbers up.
 

Chief B

Guest
A spilt perhaps, but to boot something like 60+ players? I've seen alliances do that before but we refer to them as MRAs. I think the Havoc Federation is interesting. A lot of players covering quite a bit of area. Now before you say it. Yes, the ABP, DBP is pretty crappy but if you factor in the unknowns like leadership, organization, and cooperation between each of the alliances. That could grow to be a monster knocking on the door of the core.
 

Oliver Clothesoff

Hekatonarch
A spilt perhaps, but to boot something like 60+ players? I've seen alliances do that before but we refer to them as MRAs. I think the Havoc Federation is interesting. A lot of players covering quite a bit of area. Now before you say it. Yes, the ABP, DBP is pretty crappy but if you factor in the unknowns like leadership, organization, and cooperation between each of the alliances. That could grow to be a monster knocking on the door of the core.

I guess we shall see. I'd be interested to see your top 12 with the way you have been talking. You make is sound like everyone is going to swim.

And yes to boot 60+ players would be extreme, but their core and strength pretty much remain unchanged. I have seen alliances with 24 members go pretty far in this game. Especially now since it is early.
 

Chief B

Guest
Oh I wouldn't say everyone is going to swim. Thats just not practical, but the we have 17~mos to the WW. That is so much time for things to changes, feelings to get hurt, coalitions to form. I would feel silly putting one together.

Edit: And if you go back to the original point according to Grep Intel, Uprising has 24 players, 4 of those are semi/inactive, and their #2 to a 80K hit over the last 4 days. That doesn't sound like a purge to me.
 
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Oliver Clothesoff

Hekatonarch
11. Ignem Viatores
Sink
As with EG, IV contains some decent members, but they are a hard headed bunch. What started off as a promising alliance turned into a situation where their aggressive members are separated from to bunch. Their members to the south are focused on turtleing up for their own survival, but this strategy does not promote expansion. Due to their pacts they only have 1 way to expand and have been hitting their heads against the for a while. While the alliance will sink, some of their members will likely see the light and move in another direction leading to IV eventually being dissolved.
Calllllllledddddd itttt. Down goes OoF. And to think, all it took was taking one of their islands and 7 cities in one day. >_<
 

Pavel2013

Guest
What is everyone think about TEG? They are spreading like wildfire into O41.
 
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