SINK/SWIM - October 22nd 2020

Now that we are a few days out of BP things seem to have settled down a bit (at least enough for me to make a sink/swim). There is a clear line of groups that will have a good amount of influence on how the world plays out (the ones on the map) and rosters have become more solidified after the doubling of the alliance cap. Some larger alliances are not on the map because I believe they will either SINK or not play a major role in the outcome of this world.


1. The Usual Suspects.
Came out of the gates swinging. #1 in all stats (points, attack/def bp) by a healthy margin (NOTE: stats might be off because of doubled alliance cap, but clear contenders regardless). Emerged victorious in the early war with Bad News Bears and later went on to absorb a lot of solid players from them and WTF. Domination of southern 45 is all but assured and the only real question is where they will focus their expansion.

2. Avengers (II?)

Decided to stick with the II (perhaps they will change it later?) which I can respect. Solid roster and solid core positioning in northern 55. Bordered to the north by the Honey Badgers which, depending on how the Badgers defend, could slow their expansion down a bit. Definitely looking to be a dominating force with the combination of their roster and core, and with King's Court separating them from TUS they should have a good amount of time to prepare.

3. Warlords

Another good roster but a bit more spread out than the other main groups. Presumably going to be clearing out From the Ashes for dominance of 44 which is a task that seems very achievable for them. Not many hard borders against other big groups (take note of the cities on the Badger island in north 54 though) which should give them the time they need.

4. Honey Badgers

I don't know much about the players there, but their proximity to Avengers is worrying. Likely losing their border cities to Avengers, but if they can solidify their core quickly they could slow/prevent Avengers from expanding into 55. The island they share with Warlords will also be relevant because if they have to divert defense to those cities it will become a lot harder to hold cities against Avengers.
Float for now, probably sink later

5. King's Court

This one is interesting. Their roster has a lot of tried and true revolt players, but their position on the map is incredibly awkward. Stuck between a rock and a hard place with Avengers to the north and The Usual Suspects to the south. A pact with Avengers seems like a necessary condition for this group to survive as it is extremely unlikely that they will be able to fight off TUS and Avengers at the same time. But even with that pact their expansion options are very limited as they presumably can't expand into TUS or Avengers. The south-east seems like the only viable option, but Shawnee (even though they aren't on the map) actually have a pretty strong control on the area.
Float for now, probably absorbed later (honestly idk)


1 Month Later - November 24th 2020

Alliance Changes
A lot has changed in the past month. Just a day or two after my original analysis, facing pressure from TUS, King's Court essentially fell and was for the most part absorbed into Avengers. Two weeks later Avengers started to break apart with their players being taken in by various other groups. The Honey Badgers were succeeded by the Wild Cards and Warlords reformed into Skirmish Mode. Also important to note is a new group that has popped up: Coaches Corner. I don't have much to say regarding them because I honestly don't really know much about them. Despite all the changes that have occurred somewhat recently we now have a really clear picture of how the world will play out in the coming months, which I will talk about in a bit.

TUS Expansion
The question of where TUS will expand has been answered. They moved North-East from their starting location in Southern 45, cut through the old Avengers core in 55, and are now wresting control of 54 from Wild Cards. You can draw a pretty clear line on the map from where TUS started to where their expansion is focused now.

Going forward
TUS and Skirmish Mode are the only contenders with TUS being a heavy favorite. All other groups fit into this picture based on how they will affect the TUS vs. SM conflict. Since TUS and SM are the only groups with a chance (and it seems both are here to stay) there isn't a point in doing a Sink/Swim. I will however do a quick analysis of the four major oceans so we can track each groups progress over time.

Ocean 45
Home ocean to TUS and GGW. Despite starting there TUS has taken a more lax approach towards conquering their home ocean, instead favoring rapid expansion out into 55.
1. TUS2262081 K
2. GGW109642 K

Ocean 55
Home to Shawnee and the former Avengers. TUS initially focused on dealing with Shawnee before quickly shifting the focus of their expansion upwards into 54. Note that TUS have a larger presence in 55 than they do in their starting ocean.
1. Shawnee2461000 K
2. TUS2272277 K

Ocean 54
Home to Wild Cards. This ocean is contested by multiple groups.
1. TUS1721816 K
2. WC169890 K
3. Shawnee81380 K
4. SM48420 K
5. CC25164 K

Ocean 44
Home to Skirmish Mode and Coaches Corner.
1. SM2502030 K
2. CC1891078 K
3. TUS87888 K