There's a lot up in the air right now, so it's hard to say. Just some basic observations and predictions...
New World - Is this even an alliance? Their players are literally all over the map and they have no point requirement to join. It's quite literally a conglomeration of players for no reason other than to put a flag on their city. SINK.
Hades Hellhounds - I expect them to float for a while, but they share an ocean with 2 others that I think will overpower them.
Celestial Ocean - Another rim. Float, unless they move into O45.
Scorpio Rising - Hard to say with this. They have a good central core. I'm just not sure if this is players that just happened to be next to each other or if they're there by purpose. They'll run into Hades soon. If their players stay active and fight, potentially swim.
Cats - Similar to Scorpio Rising. A good core, but this could be happenstance. I'm not impressed by the average score. Going to say float, for now.
Tartarus - Not feeling it. Sink.
Soulcatchers - No comment
Silence - They'll float until Cats get to them
Golden Legion - Good core in O54, but they share an ocean with Scorpio and Hades. I predict them taking out Hades. Float/Swim.
Allied Clan - Possibly more scattered than New World, if that's even possible. They'll go inactive or disband before they even start fighting. Sink.
Fear - Good core at the center of the map, but a lot of competition in this area with Scorpio and Soulcatchers. There's no floating possible here. It will be sink or swim.