I intend to make TARTARUS swim, at least from a technical standpoint of the word, floating people just drift, at least if you're swimming you're going in a specific direction! Just saying! I plan on sticking around unless I die! lol
There's a lot up in the air right now, so it's hard to say. Just some basic observations and predictions...
New World - Is this even an alliance? Their players are literally all over the map and they have no point requirement to join. It's quite literally a conglomeration of players for no reason other than to put a flag on their city. SINK.
Hades Hellhounds - I expect them to float for a while, but they share an ocean with 2 others that I think will overpower them.
Celestial Ocean - Another rim. Float, unless they move into O45.
Scorpio Rising - Hard to say with this. They have a good central core. I'm just not sure if this is players that just happened to be next to each other or if they're there by purpose. They'll run into Hades soon. If their players stay active and fight, potentially swim.
Cats - Similar to Scorpio Rising. A good core, but this could be happenstance. I'm not impressed by the average score. Going to say float, for now.
Tartarus - Not feeling it. Sink.
Soulcatchers - No comment
Silence - They'll float until Cats get to them
Golden Legion - Good core in O54, but they share an ocean with Scorpio and Hades. I predict them taking out Hades. Float/Swim.
Allied Clan - Possibly more scattered than New World, if that's even possible. They'll go inactive or disband before they even start fighting. Sink.
Fear - Good core at the center of the map, but a lot of competition in this area with Scorpio and Soulcatchers. There's no floating possible here. It will be sink or swim.
AT LEAST half the alliances mentioned here won't be active or around within 3 months. That said:
Scorpio - already gone
Hades, New World, Celestial Ocean will like many other alliances that recruit like crazy will end up falling due to a large amount of inactivity from the majority of players. You'll likely see the councils of these alliances dissolve and go to ones like Soul Catchers in a couple months.
Cats - Not a small group but by no means large, they have a nice middle ground and with committed leadership can make it for quite some time. In the end though will more than likely merge into a stronger group once the wars start.
Soulcatchers - Good, strong and experienced core that will be the primary reason why they progress.
Fear - Good start, can make some headway. From what I've seen at least a good core of the group has been around the block for awhile now which helps when solidifying a place early on. As for the amount of members, that's trivial. My primary server CHI has the no.2 alliance with 19 players. The only reason they aren't no.1 is because of mra point stacking from a group that was made after the original no.1 and no.2 alliances merged to fight them and lost horribly. They have total points because of a 42 player difference, the point average is about a 30,000 difference. So you can't count on numbers to be the reason why people win.
Tartarus - In a good 'can be unnoticed' spot. At number 8 their only real worries are those that wanna pass them and the couple spots above that may think they'll be easy cities. As long as none of the big guns look to them and they stick together they could be around for quite awhile.