Bad Intentions, War Dogs and MOUNTAIN WARRIORS, but something tells me war dogs will crush MOUNTAIN WARRIORS early on so it will be as you said just 2 strong alliances and 1 more boring world competition wise..
War Dogs - Red
Bad Intentions - Green
Vault101 - Light Blue
MOUNTAIN WARRIORS - Blue
D M L - Purple
Reapers - Pink
Didn't bother with SPQR as they will be food for everyone when BP ends..
From what i see for first week or 2 after BP ends 4 corners will be a mess... everyone is everywhere and by the looks of it Vault and DML are in hard positions between Bad Intentions and War dogs.. so those might also be among the first alliances to die within first few weeks, i kinda like Mountain Warriors but they dropped in wrong ocean, wrong islands.. sharing core islands with War Dogs could be trouble.
I have no clue what will Reapers do with such small numbers between strong competition, they should pick a side and merge into either War Dogs, Bad Intentions or Mountain Warriors.
Its obvious that Bad Intentions will solidify their core islands and take out any other ally on them and continue making 4 corners their immediate core.
With Bad Intentions probably controlling 4 corners in first month and War Dogs controlling 55 side, oceans 44,54 and 45 seem easiest and more less competition free.
First expected wars unless there is some early diplo between some of these alliances...
Bad Intentions VS D M L
Bad Intentions VS Vault
War Dogs VS Vault
War Dogs VS Mountain Warriors