Here is my opinion based only on numbers and data. I use Mole Hole so I get some of this from that.
You may have a difference in opinion based on actual knowledge and it is great if that gets added.
This post and analysis are analytical and not based on previous posts, personal knowledge, or anything but my opinion and numbers.
1. Bad Intentions: This is a fast growth alliance with a large number of active players. In the long game I see them pacting with a few large alliances around them so they can somewhat quietly form core islands. If they try to move around to much though most will see them as to much of a threat and they will end up in more then a handful of wars very early in game. This will be the first alliance in my opinion to grab up and fill an academy alliance. We will see if they form a few NAP's around them to let them settle in and grow a bit. If they come off the starting line though I see them ending up being absorbed as shocking as that sounds. Swim is my vote.
2. War Dogs: You could cookie cutter what I said about Bad Intentions and put it here. This alliance I fully expect to NAP or fully go all out join extension with Bad Intentions. Two large bodies in one world spells war if they cant agree to live together. LOL this is a war game though. In all though this is another hyper inflation alliance with a high number of active players. Time will tell who they choose to friend and who they choose to fight. If they fight Bad Intentions it will be anyone's guess who survives. More then likely a third moon like alliance will arise from such a fight that is their most active players teaming with Bad Intentions most active.
Swim.
3. Vault 101: This is in my opinion one of the worlds most dangerous alliances. According to their profile page they are "... an area centered, determined group of fighters..." This (for those kind of new to this) is what makes an alliance powerful. They are a fast inflating alliance with fairly high points per player, who are centered and focused on that central point. They don't go swimming around looking for fights but they will eliminate all nearby who threaten to slow them down from achieving core islands with support around those cores. They will secure more then one ocean and hold their ground. I will bet they pact with one of the other top alliances for additional stationary support so they can hold their ground the best. I vote this one is a swim!
4. D M L: This alliance is going to be a future key player. They are organized, well thought out, and I am going to take a wild guess they are already looking for world allies and potential targets of threat to them. They will absorb a nearby mid range alliance and grow much larger probably in the next few weeks. Time will tell but so far I vote swim. They are strong on the attack list as well meaning they are not afraid to go forward in the world.
5. SPQR: (believed to now be "The Name") This alliances point totals only come from number of players not individual player growth. They might surprise us all in the coming weeks by making some good hard core gains but as they have a rather big collection of players who have low activity levels their organizational power is hard to determine. They do make attacks frequently enough but is this the dog that is barking at the end of its leash? If they revamp their structure they will drop in points but will come back up strong. If they stay the course they wont do well if a larger or even same sized group comes along to pick them off. Sadly I vote sink in the long run but float for now.
6. T.B.D.: I look at this alliance like I do Black Sails. Its like they are waiting for something but in this case they are fighting so they are not to inactive or slow to gain. They don't appear to be slackers. They are a mid range if not large mid range alliance. I am very curious who they pact with. That will tell us a lot about their intentions and their organization. For now I vote float. Not sure where things will go with them.
7. On Our Shields: A strong alliance with good leadership. OOS has good gains, good focus and low inactivity levels. I vote Swim. I cant say much more without looking biased. Since I am a member.
8. Black Sails: This is a mid range alliance that I see forming a merger with another mid range alliance in their area. They have gained steadily but hit a plateau and are more then likely waiting to see who to merger with or who to try to get to merger into them. I am going to take wild guess and say they have low internal forum activity and not a lot of planning for operations or movements. This cant be good for future movement. They have put thought into their profile page and they have noteable activity levels. I vote sink on them though since I can see them merging into another alliance. Unless they make a power move any alliance even close to their size will war or attempt to absorb them.
9. The Animals: This is another mid rang alliance. Gains are at a mid level and they look like they already had a fight based on a player with 0 cities and 0 points. Unless they ate one of their own then the story changes a lot. Till we have more info I have to say they float. I cant see them being absorbed unless its by a sharp and organized point gain alliance. Time will tell what is the deal with this group.
10. Multum in Parvo: Not to be fooled this alliance is no spring chicken. With clever leadership and a wait and pounce attitude this alliance is one that would make a great pact or merger group. They have climbed steady, stayed out of the main mix, and organized themselves. This is one to watch for who they make friends with. With several likely OP's in the works they are sure to be seeking and solidifying their core islands. This one is a swim.
11. Jokers Wild: Jokers wild is as wild as their name implies. I cant really seem to get a good reading on them. They each have only 1 city but their growth is steady (not fast but steady) Their inactives tend to hang around a bit though making me wonder if they are not a bit larger in appearance then they are in organization. Time will tell though for them. But I vote sink. I see an alliance of larger organization, power, and numbers trying to deflate them as soon as possible.
12. AirBorne Rangers: A small alliance but with a strong player base. Their activity level is actually fairly active and they each have over 1600 points. At face value they look like a strong alliance for an absorbtion by a larger allaince rather then an elimination. As for standing on their own they will have to grow in numbers. If they do and their activity level, points, and total cities stay organized this alliance is a dark horse. I say they float.