here's a top 12 sink or swim for you:
1 Mors Venit - they have a lot of active golders in a tight core area. however, they are surrounded by serious threats on all sides, so if they don't play diplomacy wisely, they'll be under attack on multiple fronts. float.
2 Changed By Support - good players, don't see them going anywhere in the near future. I don't know who all they're allied with, but they might not have enough enemies to grow if they're pacted with MV/DV. float.
3 pandamonium - they're using the time honored tactic of starting late to avoid being smack dab in the center like mors venit. this is smart because it allows them to grow strong early without taking on any serious opponent. then, in the late game, they'll have an obnoxious, strong, core area that only has tough battles on one side. it's a cheap way to win, but their odds are good. hopefully other strong alliances in the area realize that they're the primary threat and team up against them before it's too late. float.
4 Genocidal Monsters - this is my alliance, so take it with a grain of salt. we have a lot of enemies - especially to the south. hard to say whether we'll come out on top, but we have decent position in the north. float.
5 The Greek States - something happened here recently, a merge of some sort, that gave these two Greek alliances great positioning in the southeast and a lot of points/members between the two alliance. it's hard to say exactly what will happen since the merge is still new and the dust is still settling. float.
6 The Greek Tidings - see 5.
7 Anarchist Consulate - I don't know anything about these guys. float.
8 Galactic Beasts - I don't know anything about these guys. float.
9 Homicidal Monsters - see 4.
10 Champions of Olympus - I don't know anything about these guys. float.
11 Deus Vult - they have Bayaz (and his second account, araski), as well as a tight group of other players, but a couple players aren't an alliance. they're totally dependent on Mors Venit, so I don't see them making any progress as anything other than MV's unofficial academy. float.
12 The Last Knights -They have an easy time in the west part of the rim, just like Celtic Knights/Celtic Warriors in the east part of the rim. I don't see any of the alliances I just mentioned doing anything great, but I also don't see anyone chasing them out of them rim. float.