Bringing Back Upsilon: Updated Top 12 Sink or Swim

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DeletedUser6798

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Updated the graphs. grepostats apparently took a while to update >_<
 

DeletedUser

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It was very helpful that you guys got to Digtal.Native's cities so efficiently, knowing exactly when he was coming off VM. My prediction is that AM/DM will see another nice spike with the Duderanch cities as well and some Havoc defectors. At that point I can safely say AM/DM will have reached her high point, so enjoy the moment. The easy points have come to an end, and now we enter the mid-game grind that tests the soul and causes many players to feel the fun is done.

But I did like your charts. They look pretty, like a coat of fresh paint over a piece of rusty metal.
 

DeletedUser6798

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I'm so glad you have so little to contribute. Means less to argue. I will talk your silence as a form of consent.

Look around Mikos, AR hasnt taken a city that wasnt a ghost or from within their own alliance in over a week! If anyone is living off of easy cities it is them. Havoc collapsed and Trinity cant muster up any type of offensive against players they have been fighting for months.

I think I paid SO a compliment by saying it isnt in you guys to just float, but the truth is, this is just the beginning. The vice gets tighter by the day. However, the fight has been a good one thus far. I hope it holds out.

As far as my graphs.. full credit to grepostats. You should try using it some time. I was just trying to add a new feature to my sink/swim. You know keep you on your toes.
 
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DeletedUser

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Like I said, enjoy the next two weeks. Your beautiful graphs will shine like fresh paint over rust. But sooner or later the rust will come through.

That's how stats work . They're cosmetic. So keep putting lipstick on that pig, cause all that bacon you're a-makin is gonna get taken.

After SO gets through with you, we gonna go all 'deliverance' on your hide and make you squeal like pig.

But enjoy the moment and fatten yourselves up. The big bad wolf of the east is coming to huff and puff and blow your stats down.

The Hive = straw

meysen_3LittlePigs_straw.jpg


AM/DM = sticks

meysen_3LittlePigs_sticks.jpg
 
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DeletedUser6798

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Lol poor Mikos.. this is what you have resorted to?

please step up to the line and take your best shot.

I already miss the mathematician who attempted to enter into the first legitimate debate with me
 
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DeletedUser

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please step up to the line and take your best shot.

I believe I did. I give you credit for wonderful cosmetics. But putting pretty lipstick on a pig doesn't change its porcine nature, never will. You might be able to sell it like a pump and dump penny stock; but in the end, it never held true equity. I'll let you muddle with this thought, the greatest fighting force this world has ever known is the USMC. In the battle of Guadalcanal, the Jap stats dictated utter defeat for Chesty Puller and the marines stationed there. But let's try and remember who won there: the US Marines.

We find ourselves in the mid-game grind of a grepo-world. This is the part where heart and perseverance carry more weight than statistics, but let's talk math.

The charts you post show nice lines moving upward in time, dx/dt. But why bet on a horse running 10 mph faster than another, when that other horse is set to increase velocity 2mph faster than the first horse (i.e. we call this acceleration in physics). If the world were ending soon, I'd bow down to your magnificent charting. But as it were, your charting is but foolish farting, so beware of sticking the 'lighter of truth" to close to all that hot air.

http://http://vimeo.com/7014548
 
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DeletedUser6798

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You need to stop editing your posts AFTER I make my post.

As with your most recent one, there is but 1 flaw.. if this is a horse race, you are assuming your horse is set to increase velocity 2mph faster than my horse.

You backing for your assumption. You merely state it because it makes SO's sad situation seem better. That is the type of argument I will not partake in. One dealing with imaginary numbers. I wish I had the slops of these graphs.. Change in slope is acceleration. If you compared alliances, the slopes of AM/DM are increasing their pitch which would mean that the alliance is acceleration its growth rate. However, looking and SO and AR, your slopes seem to flatten out. This means your alliance alliance has an acceleration rate below 0. So in essence you are decelerating as an alliance. And when race horses slow down, they are put to rest.
 

DeletedUser9702

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I am a little disappointed in Oliver's last sink or swim. It looks a bit too much like propaganda for his war effort, apparently he thinks his side is winning so those aligned with him get swim while those against him sink. I am in Hera just to be clear about my biases.

Part of his criticism of us is that we haven't taken any cities from AM/DM which is true but there are hardly any AM/DM cities nearby. So far we have been engaged primarily with the Elder Gods. Us and our associates have take 40+ cities from the Eldergods since the start of the war and lost something like 6. While it is true some of these are in actives, it is also true that some of the "inactives" were players that we drove out of the game. Actually we have found that TEG generally does a poor job of defending their inactives, and in turns out those inactive cities produce military units just fine once we take them over. If you look at the balance of power in OC52 and OC53 it has been steadily shifting in our favor.

Now the collapse of HAVOC bodes well for TEG's prospects and as they will be able to put more pressure on us or perhaps AM/DM will move northward to engage us, but so far we have been beating everyone who has been put in front of us. Before you give us a sink perhaps you should find at least some evidence that there is someone within a reasonable distance of us capable of taking our cities. It is a long game and trust me Hera isn't going anywhere.
 

DeletedUser9934

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We have a bunch of cities in 55 and 54 where trinity has a some what large presence and I've seen some Hera floating around there too, those oceans haven't been loosing cities(while trinity has been), so don't give me that bull crud that you don't have any local targets.

As for ximixos, wow dude you've really fallen off the ball. You sound like a half witted politician driving a point by pulling out some obscure study made by some fanatical group. How many players have quit or gone into VM between SO and AR? The bottom line is you guys are loosing significantly more cities then we are and the only cities you're grabbing from us are inactives, not much either, and eating your own that have gone inactive/ghosted. Its funny that you keep talking about us putting make up on the pig when it's really you making the pig look some two cent hooker.
 
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DeletedUser6798

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Marius you need to take a look at the map. Red is Hera, and blue is AM/DM

8OAAx.png


I know it is zoomed out a bit, but you share O54 with us as well as have a presence in O55. Now if your argument lends itself to the fact that those fronts dont matter to your alliance than that is fine. I am not being biased with my predictions. I go by the fact that your alliance is stagnant in those oceans despite our growing presence. I also considered the fact that you dont have many players with high fighter stats. You claim your alliance are aggressors in other oceans, well where is the proof? You have only 6 players in the top 100 in ABP.. 4 of which are in the 90-100 range. Your best fighter is #72 in total BP. You want me to say that your alliance is going to swim? Who is going to carry it? Based on grepointel, 23 of your 72 members havent grown a point in the last 48 hours. 42 of your 72 players cant even log in every day of the week it looks like. I'm not being bias, I am being honest.

You also say you are taking control of oceans shared with Elder Gods. Checking grepostats the last time you took a city from any one of their alliances was 5 days ago. In the last 7 weeks you guys have taken about 35 cities from one of Elder Gods 5 or 6 alliances, which isnt BAD for an alliance your size, however the rate of cities has dropped off recently, and with the fall of Havoc, I just dont think it is sustainable. Like I said though it is my opinion. I looked at all of these things before making my decision. When it comes down to it, nothing stood out about Heracletian to make me think that you guys will swim. The only thing you have going for you is that you are the furthest away from the danger compared to any of the other AM/DM enemies. If anything that will allow you guys to hang around in your fight with Elder Gods.
 

DeletedUser

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You need to stop editing your posts AFTER I make my post.

Change in slope is acceleration. If you compared alliances, the slopes of AM/DM are increasing their pitch which would mean that the alliance is acceleration its growth rate. However, looking and SO and AR, your slopes seem to flatten out. This means your alliance alliance has an acceleration rate below 0. So in essence you are decelerating as an alliance. And when race horses slow down, they are put to rest.

ah but I conceded the moment to you. I totally agree with everything you wrote up there. I even concede the next week or two will be supported by the data. I cry uncle there. Congratulations are in order. Go home, celebrate, take off the lipstick and enjoy the pig in the mirror, au natural.

But soon the story shall change, and like that sad parabola we call a 'frown' :( the rate of change of your velocity (although positive atm) is set to turn your lovely little trip to power into that proverbial roller coaster ride: up, up you'll go, slower and slower; then down, down you'll go ....your alliances' morale getting lower and lower.

1. Antimatter has the most points at this given time (although we could all reshuffle that one around and around)
ergo The moment belongs to Antimatter

2. As well, AM/DM has the momentum, the m*v, as I concede and you just pointed out.

3.But we shall have the F= m*a, and it's all about the Force[/B], of course.

4. And soon we're coming to F you up.

OO TO FRICKEN RAH POWER!

OORAH!
 
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DeletedUser6798

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That is fine Mikos. Everything you are saying is merely speculative. I just thought you were above that.

Guess with the way things have gone no one can say otherwise.

I promise you this Mikos.. in 2 weeks(thats when you were saying things would be different) I will count the score again and we shall see how much of a profit you really are.
 

DeletedUser9702

Guest
Your map actually would make my point if you included Trinity and its other sister alliances on it. You would see that Trinity's city density is much higher in those oceans than ours is. The presence we have there is from working with Trinity players on joint takes. It is not that we don't care about those oceans it is that we are not really fighting in them except as occasional support for Trinity. The fact that we are not actively taking cities against AM/DM doesn't really say anything and it is not like they are taking a bunch of cities from us either. Basically we are not fighting each other much even though we are enemies. Now if you think your data shows that Trinity is about to collapse then fine I guess we might sink with them. But I believe you have been predicting a Trinity defeat for a long time. Even back when the HIVE was going over run them. It seems that Trinity usually turns out to be a bit more durable than you usually give it credit for.

We are basically fighting against the various ElderGods alliances. And as you point out we took 35 cities in a war which started on 4-15 or 4-16?. So that's 35 cities in 4 weeks. Not counting the cities that we took after we would drive their players out of the game. We will see if that will continue once the HAVOC collapse sorts itself out, but what happens over a five day period doesn't say much when we are talking about long term trends. It is certainly possibility that TEG will turn things around, HAVOC's collapse should help them, but I would at least like to see some evidence that TEG can take cities from us.

If I was a betting man I would bet Float on Hera. Trinity isn't going anywhere any time soon and it is hard to predict whether or not the Elder Gods can take from us or whether we will be able to continue to take from them in some sort of post-HAVOC world.

I really do like your sink or swim updates, and I like that you use statistics to back up your claims. But I feel you are a bit biased by your position in the core. It is as if the front you fight on is all that matters. The war between you guys and Trinity/AR has been going on for a long time. My guess is that it will continue for quite a bit longer.
 
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DeletedUser6798

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It is 35 cities since the beginning of April. Thats why I said 6 weeks lol

The War between AM/DM and Trinity(and sub alliances)/Havoc/Spec Ops/AR is actually younger than your war with EG. The first world wide turns 1 month old tomorrow (see "The Declaration" thread)

And you are right, my money is on float for now. That is why I said Float Than Sink. I didnt say how long you guys would float, but my guys is a while. But you cant just float.. Every alliance eventually sinks except 1.

Similarly, I have had Heracletian as Float then Sink since The Hive days because nothing has changed. Yes The Hive is no longer around, but at least 75% of the players on the front lines with Trinity are still there. Trinity certainly didnt defeat them. And if one portion of the Hive could have continued to hold their own, it was that portion.

But you are right, a lot remains to be seen. I can only go by how I view statistics. And when it comes down to it, Elder Gods have more fighters than you. But as Mikos would point out, there are other factors that determine the outcome of this world.
 
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DeletedUser

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Let's also uncover another dirty secret in those numbers. You just recruited Firebrand the Benedict Arnold of the West. That doesn't sound like you're filling up the ranks with Spartans, more like fair-weather warriors from the island of Lesbos.

So go read your Sappho and a Basic Stats book, as for me, I'll read Tyrtaeus and Sun Tzu.

And don't even try to color that one other than for it is: fair weather friends disappear at first sign of rough winds. Review the server's history and that of the once 'statistically invincible' Hive.

So go choke on that piece of honeycomb, my friend. You should be ashamed of yourself for thinking I wouldn't find out the wimpy traiterousness underlying your bogus, braggadocious worship of numerology.

The only statistics you can trust folks is mine. I don't lie nor do I lie with numbers. I am fully Socratic in my love of truth, unlike the sophists who haunt these forums.

And to add to my veracity is my mystical connection to future events whenever the Oracle of Upsilon chooses to speak her riddles.
 
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DeletedUser

Guest
Damn, what is that I see before me? A flatline?
Flat line.JPG
By the way Oliver, thank you so much for your negative endorsements, I believe past behaviour is a good indicator of future behaviour...this suits us very well in two respects. Firstly, your predictions have proved to be so inaccurate in the past that I would not like to embarrass you by recounting them all here old bean, so you predicting our downfall can only mean our assured success. Secondly, once a loser always a loser. Kinda wonder which nest you will find yourself in next mate?
Cuckoo.JPG
 

DeletedUser7985

Guest
Marius, sorry to burst your bubble but you have taken 2 cities from us out of all those 35 cities, and those two we had this for communication, "I am being attacked" every other city no communication from or inactive. This was your third major attack on us two days ago and we shut you down. It took us a lot longer to shut Havocs offense down, so that does not say much for you guys. Like Havoc you have started something that you cannot finish. Oh and will not even throw in that we were at peace with each other and we were fighting on a different front when you guys broke the peace and attacked us. I think it would take anyone time to shift so that they could fight on two fronts. We have done great keeping you to just 2 cities and then our in actives. 35 cities now that was some true propaganda, and some real twisting of numbers.
 

DeletedUser9702

Guest
Oliver, I think we are pretty much in agreement except on the larger question of how Trinity will hold up. But as they say that is why we play the game.



Clb...go get a drink and calm down.

I can only know how many cities we have taken from you by looking on grepostats (oh and on the scoreboard we keep on our internal forums). I have no idea how competent the players are that we are attacking. I am sorry your alliance is stacked full of inactive and incompetent players who don't post support requests. What I can tell you is those 35 cities are now being run by Hera players. I would also point out that as Oliver noted some Hera players are inactive as well. It might be a smart idea for you to occasionally try to take one of those. Basically your strategy has been to hide behind your brm walls or attack one of our academy up in OC51.

I am sick of the "inactives" defense. As an alliance you have a responsibility to defend your inactive cities and keep them from falling in the hands of your enemies. Something you are not doing a very good job at. Yes, taking inactive cities is easier than taking them from active players, just like taking cities from incompetent players is easier than taking from competent ones. And yes you shut our "offensives down" but we just attack again a few days later and over time your position declines relative to ours. It also shouldn't take you a month for you to reposition some brms.

As for the two front thing I would like to point out that you are an entire alliance system, when you think of Trinity system as a whole its not like we aren't also fighting AM/DM? How would you be doing if your second front was against AM? With HAVOC collapsing you have a real opportunity to turn the tables on us. I think everyone recognizes that. Good Luck.

(In one of the great ironies of Grepolis as I was typing this message we just took a 12k city from you. Don't count it though,..player was only occasionally active)
 
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DeletedUser7985

Guest
I don't need a drink.

You guys are really good at taking in actives and that is about it, as has been shown over the last few days, weeks and month. Great you took another inactive from us today, what are you guys going to do once we get that covered? Maybe some ghosts will pop up. As you are tired of our "in actives" defense, we are tired of your great 35 city victory over us. Yes a win is a win but most people will agree bragging about winning in actives is a cheap win. And if you cannot tell what cities are inactive by the amount of defense you encounter then I don't know what to tell you. I just checked, yep you got another inactive from us. Enjoy that "victory"! Wow what an accomplishment.

I will say this though, you have found a chink in our armor and it is good tactics to exploit any weakness. It is just the bragging about it that I don't get. We are aware of this weakness and will move to correct it.

Two Fronts, one on the west and one on the east, is a bit harder then your "two" fronts. That is actually laughable that you said that.

Your own leader just put out a letter stating that your offense has been stalemated and you guys are excited because some Havoc players might join you. So you guys are placing hope that havoc will help out, again laughable. And on top of that it is an outright lie that Magnus is working with you guys. So you guys are lying to your own players, trying to give them hope where there is no hope.

So keep your score board of inactive cities that you have taken and raise it up on high and be proud of it.
 
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DeletedUser9702

Guest
I wasn't bragging, I only posted in the first place as a reply to Oliver's post. I have been following this thread for a long time. And I don't consider this "part of the game" out here I like to talk about the game. I find Oliver's analyisis interesting but I think he sometimes missess things about local situations far from the core.

We never seem to have hit it off. From what I know about you I hear you are a very good leader who really tries to take care of his people. You seem upset at me personally, which I don't understand other than you think I didn't believe you about the Roughneck thing--though I will point out they are attacking us with your support On a future server we may find ourselves on the same side. I am sorry if I offended you.
 
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